Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 825.585745 936.607424 1062.509403 1217.006764 1403.066318 1621.946894 1901.969372
2024-10-27 644.706627 780.545050 949.078573 1177.656992 1486.217998 1898.523759 2509.746729
2024-11-03 582.886822 734.129968 932.524034 1219.550859 1638.044670 2250.227348 3264.814670
2024-11-10 531.040846 690.649532 909.855661 1244.860216 1767.484304 2597.933412 4130.299720
2024-11-17 489.230996 652.964391 886.425513 1259.954655 1877.625375 2934.353720 5090.919591
2024-11-24 447.141363 609.122371 847.096908 1242.324228 1928.409272 3179.256085 5974.388058
2024-12-01 421.827788 586.438777 835.637867 1265.575403 2050.751528 3583.662258 7377.419880
2024-12-08 404.201894 573.060575 836.258116 1307.812313 2214.456859 4116.015560 9382.030996
2024-12-15 383.743142 553.023242 823.429501 1323.783683 2330.034580 4581.305248 11517.001318
2024-12-22 360.716510 526.718924 797.208034 1311.149190 2384.332658 4922.418078 13529.747767
2024-12-29 346.442859 513.255292 791.113827 1335.000403 2520.640117 5513.810405 16942.697803
2025-01-05 323.184115 483.095019 753.120781 1291.637550 2498.224645 5677.006773 18840.737865
2025-01-12 302.939146 457.465346 722.508465 1262.613095 2512.260033 5976.749610 21851.396360
2025-01-19 281.999292 429.366385 685.361751 1216.342221 2478.129110 6131.124958 24441.912301
2025-01-26 275.480647 425.460355 691.814930 1261.752686 2682.399336 7136.401378 33743.561754
2025-02-02 266.930585 417.289240 689.423413 1287.699228 2843.543651 8091.567111 45415.757789
2025-02-09 257.900145 407.548063 683.024919 1303.670383 2982.023784 9051.696274 60732.493070
2025-02-16 245.819442 391.459097 662.831825 1285.164032 3017.100965 9618.821689 74685.036731
2025-02-23 239.180591 384.883749 660.902321 1309.514821 3188.487179 10913.493525 106621.379817
2025-03-02 234.886668 382.331365 666.797059 1353.728546 3436.796438 12802.272858 170108.458239
2025-03-09 228.251212 374.901973 661.959582 1370.457439 3600.643653 14417.192654 258181.826894
2025-03-16 219.432884 362.765468 646.272930 1357.224342 3657.709413 15477.977319 358116.809393
2025-03-23 214.413674 357.658650 645.123126 1382.206264 3862.465967 17730.978699 632881.881593